Brick’s Blog

    So what’s hot and what’s not in the Richmond Real Estate Market? Actually, the pain is distributed fairly evenly. Most areas are experiencing sales decline in aggregate 34 % range for the composite area. The East End (Zones 42 and 40), old Mechanicsville (Zone 44), and the Southeast City (Zone 50) are experiencing some of the worst declines. Showing the most resilency are some surprisng areas like Central Henrico (Zone 32) and two of the “new suburbia” areas - Zone 54 in southwest Chesterfield and Zone 34 in northwest Henrico. The popularity for these areas can probably be attributable to the significant rehabiliation occuring in Zone 32 and the new construction available in Zone 54 and Zone 34.  Here’s what the various Real Estate Zones reveal in a June ’08 versus June ’07 and Year to Date ‘08 versus Year to Date ‘07.

Sales by Real Estate Zones for June 2008 vs 2007
		2008		2007		% Change
Zone		# of sales		# of sales
10		56		75		-25.33%
20		30		53		-43.40%
22		104		161		-35.40%
24		20		35		-42.86%
30		32		43		-25.58%
32		33		52		-36.54%
34		94		137		-31.39%
36		44		67		-34.33%
40		19		53		-64.15%
42		22		57		-61.40%
44		45		94		-52.13%
50		16		33		-51.52%
52		82		123		-33.33%
54		118		133		-11.28%
60		41		57		-28.07%
62		124		169		-26.63%
64		37		61		-39.34%
66		22		38		-42.11%
		939		1441		-34.84%
Sales by Real Estate Zones YTD 2008 vs 2007
		2008		2007		% Change
Zone		# of sales		# of sales
10		259		400		-35.25%
20		138		219		-36.99%
22		412		650		-36.62%
24		98		145		-32.41%
30		136		208		-34.62%
32		176		230		-23.48%
34		411		575		-28.52%
36		186		282		-34.04%
40		139		251		-44.62%
42		143		293		-51.19%
44		220		369		-40.38%
50		109		201		-45.77%
52		396		606		-34.65%
54		545		760		-28.29%
60		218		317		-31.23%
62		499		736		-32.20%
64		178		263		-32.32%
66		131		194		-32.47%
		4394		6699		-34.41%

   ’08 sales in the Greater Richmond area continue to trail ‘07 sales by approximately 34 %. As I have mentioned previously, I continue to believe this significant decline will not continue through the year and will moderate to a decline of about 25 % as we progress through the second half of the year. Richmond continues to be battered not by local conditions but by national issues. While a recent headline in Richmond Times-Dispatch screamed that foreclosures were up over 200 %, it was based on numbers provided by Realty Trac. My feelings about Realty Trac have been expressed before, so I will not bore you with a rehash. There is no question that foreclosure are up in the Richmond area. A quick glance at the legal section of the Times-Dispatch will quickly confirm this, but I continue to believe the percentage number provided by Realty Trac is grossly overstated.   

    I’ll post additional statistics later this week, but here is the YTD breakdown for price ranges and activity for ‘08 sales versus ‘07 sales. Please remember these figures are based on Richmond’s suburban areas and compiled using the Real Estate Zones of 10, 20, 22, 24, 30, 32, 34, 36, 40, 42, 44, 50, 52, 54, 60, 62, 64, and 66.

June YTD		2008				2007
Price Range		# of Sales		% of Ttl Sales		# of Sales		% of Ttl Sales
0 - 99,999		195		4.44%		303		4.52%
100,000 - 199,999		1219		27.74%		1970		29.41%
200,000 - 299,999		1554		35.37%		2250		33.59%
300,000 - 399,999		690		15.70%		1070		15.97%
400,000 - 499,999		334		7.60%		521		7.78%
500,000 - 599,999		158		3.60%		226		3.37%
600,000 - 699,999		89		2.03%		142		2.11%
700,000 - 799,999		56		1.27%		79		1.18%
800,000 - 899,999		37		0.84%		50		0.75%
900,000 - 999,999		11		0.25%		34		0.51%
1 Million plus		51		1.16%		54		0.81%
Total Sales/Pct.		4394		100.00%		6699		100.00%

     OMG, did Richmonders awake in June and discover they weren’t all losing their jobs? Did the warmer weather and longer daylight hours distract Richmonders from watching/reading the “doom and gloom” on the housing market from the national media? I’ll have more to say in subsequent posts, but June showed some strong numbers - inventory level down slightly, shorter marketing periods, stable dollar per square foot costs, stable Sales Price/List Price ratio, etc. I am not dancing a jig yet, but June certainly exhibited some encouraging signs. It will be a few days on subsequent posts, I have a relocating buyer for the next few days. Wait a minute, Brick, you mean local employers are actually bringing people to Richmond? Like I said, some encouraging events are happening. Stay tuned. 

 

 

For the 25 single family homes sold in

Fan & Museum District of the City of Richmond

(Fox and John B. Cary School Districts)

Average Sales Price in June    $ 430,959

Median Sales Price ……………  $ 358,000

Sales Price/List Price Ratio …….. 96.3 %

Days on Market …………………….. 50

Average Size 3 bedrooms 2.5 baths of 2,255 sq ft

Average $ per square foot ……….$ 191.11

 

For the 30 homes sold in West End of the City of Richmond

(Zips 23221, 23226 and 23230)

Average Sales Price in June    $ 411,066

Median Price ……………………. $ 303,500

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……. 97.5 %

Days on Market ……………………. 46

Average Size 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 2,029 sq ft

Average $ per square foot……..   $ 202.60

 

For the 104 single family homes sold in West End of Henrico County

(Zips 23226, 23229, 23233, 23238)

Average Sales Price in June    $ 389,019

Median Sales Price ……………  $ 302,500

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……….  97.2 %

Days on Market …………………….    38

Average Size 4 bedrooms 2.5 baths of 2,500 sq ft

Average $ per square foot ………. $ 155.61

 

For the 126 single family homes sold in Chesterfield

(Zips 23831, 23832, 23834, 23836, and 23838)

Average Sales Price for June   $ 295,517

Median Sales Price ………….$ 271,000

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……..  97.2 %

Average Days on Market……………. 61

Average Size 4 bedroom, 2.5 baths of 2,468 square ft

Average $ per square foot ………..$ 119.74

 

For the 86 single family homes sold in Glen Allen

(Zips 23059 and 23060)

Average Sales Price for June     $ 372,612

Median Sales Price………………  $ 318,750

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ………  96.4 %

Average Days on Market ………….   66

Average Size 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 2,554 sq ft

Average $ per square foot……… $ 145.89

 

For the 67 single family homes sold in Mechanicsville

(Zips 23111 and 23116)

Average Sales Price for June   $ 297,848

Median Price ……………………   $ 275,000

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……… 97.3 %

Average Days on Market ………….. 68

Average Size 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths 2,231 sq ft

Average $ per square foot ……….. $ 133.50

 

For 130 single family homes sold in Midlothian

(Zips 23112, 23113, and 23114)

Average Sales Price for June   $ 338,469

Median Price …………………….. $ 276,000

Sales Price List Price Ratio …….    97.7 %

Average Days on Market …………..  68

Average Size 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 2,617 sq ft

Average $ per square foot……….. $ 129.33

    

    An old adage in the legal profession is “He who represents himself has a fool for a client.” A couple of weeks ago I got a copy of anonymous letter addressed to one of the senior appraisers in Henrico County. The gist of this poorly written letter was certain features (i.e., number of bedrooms, baths and finished square footage) for a property I had just listed conflicted with the public information available through Zillow. Zgads, zstop zthe zpresses.

     Yesterday, while discarding some recent correspondence, I came across this letter again. Uncertain as to what the point of the letter was, I decided to call the senior appraiser at Henrico County and discuss it with him. Turns out that every few months, the appraiser receives one of these anonymous letter whenever anything is listed in this one subdivision where the MLS (Multiple Listing Service) information conflicts with public information. This genius author and real estate guru is always arguing that tax assessments in this subdivision are too high and public records need to reflect what is truly in the property. 

     There is only one problem with his reasoning. As in the instance of the property I had listed, the property had an additional bedroom, an additional full bath, and additional square footage from what public records showed. Items like this would only increase the tax assessment. 

     Whenever we have a slower real estate market, I cannot tell you how many calls I receive from people questioning their real estate tax assessments and whether they should appeal. My typical advice is never let the tax man in the door. I will guarantee you he will find items increasing your assessment.

     So if you live in the Colonies at Wilde Lake in western Henrico County, you might want to find out who this genius is. I can assure you this person is always railing about the real estate tax assessments to anyone who will listen. You need to tell this real estate “expert” to cool it. If Henrico County starts believing their records are so wrong for a community, particularly an affluent neighborhood, the county may well request physical inspections of the properties. Ka’ching ka’ching you lose.  

     Your faithful Richmond VA real estate reporter and bon vivant of all things Southern is now affiliated with Coldwell Banker - Vaughan & Company. Can you believe it? After 24 + years in this business, this is my first affiliation with a national franchise. More to come as I adapt to my new environment, but I am very excited about my new opportunities.  

     All golfers have benchmarks in their playing careers. For a junior golfer, it’s the day they get their bag tag. Just like becoming old enough to vote, legally have your first alcohol drink, or drive an automobile, a bag tag at a club signifies you are allowed to be on the course on your own. Can’t take a cart, but you may walk the course whenever allowed - usually after 2 p.m.

     My daughter, Lucy Gordon, got hers on Labor Day, September 3, 2007. Typically, junior golfers need to exhibit a cursory knowledge of the rules, course etiquette, and a proficiency to score under a certain number on any 3 consecutive holes (21 seems to be the number for most clubs) before they receive their tag. I cheated. Well, I didn’t cheat, I probably just "sandbagged" our club’s newest assistant pro. When I asked him Monday what the procedure was for a junior golfer to get their tag, he said he wasn’t sure and then quickly made one for Lucy Gordon. And I am not going to worry about it! The pure glee she had when I put it on her bag will be one of my lasting memories.

     Besides for the immediate future, when she plays, she’ll play with me; and she’ll know her etiquette. Monday, she was already replacing and filling her divots. She meticulously raked every trap where she hit an errant ball. Now, if our other club members were as conscientious! 

     Her ability to score well will come. She had some moments yesterday - at least two moon shot putts of 40 feet that dropped. She also holed out in 3 a couple of  times from within 100 yards. Soon I’ll be writing about that first true par, so stay tuned. 

     My daughter is the ultimate prepster. She even has a battered copy of The Official Preppy Handbook. Therefore, it should be no surprise that the J. Crew catalogue comes to my house. Since I am an old prepster myself, I like to thumb through the catalogue whenever it arrives at our home.

     I didn’t know until this morning (thank you, Google & Wikipedia) that J. Crew has only been around since 1983.  My impression had always been that it was a venerable old line New England clothier who specialized in the classic prep look, which was rolled out nationally due to the mail order success of LL Bean. Wrong.

     Please correct me if I am mistaken, but didn’t J. Crew once have a tailored Brooks Brothers like look? For some reason, I have always associated Nantucket red pants and cotton sweaters with J. Crew. There is no question that the predominant material of J. Crew products is still cotton, it’s just cotton that has never met an iron.

    I don’t get it. The J. Crew catalogue is page after page of crumbled rumbled goods. The models look like they’re wearing the dirty clothes found on my son’s bedroom floor. J., I occasionally see items in your catalogue that interest me, but buddy they need to be ironed. 

     Located on a quiet cul de sac and backing to a resource protected area, 1101 Mapleton Court has an incredible private setting. Nestled on an over 1/2 acre lot, this 3 bedroom 2.5 bath Colonial is situated in close proximity to Regency Square, Gayton Crossing Center, and the Tuckahoe YMCA. With a fenced Rear Yard and a wonderful tool shed with work bench and electricity, 1101 Mapleton Court will delight anyone with a green thumb.

     While the gardener pursues his passions, the chef of the house has a wonderful area to create culinary masterpieces. The kitchen has a 5 burner gas range. A side by side stainless steel refrigerator is also included. After enjoying that fantastic meal, what better place to relax than the Family Room with its masonry fireplace and gas logs.

     This all gas home is offered at $259,500. For more information, please take the Visual Tour.

     Remember "it’s the economy, stupid"? This Clinton catchphrase from the ‘92 election may well reverberate in this year’s election, too. Well, I have a new catchphrase to describe the Richmond real estate market and it is "It’s the selectivity, stupid."

     In past posts, you may recall that I mentioned my encouragement to my buyer clients to be very selective in their ultimate choice. Damn the gas prices, full speed ahead. With our glutted market, buyers need not compromise and should definitely find everything on their "want" list and most of their "wish" list in the home choice.

     Over the last few days, I have been working on pricing for a some potential listings I may have. In doing my CMA (Comparable Market Analysis), I was stuck by the "selectivity" shown in my comps. I know this last sentence was filled the Realtorese, so let me translate. "Comps" are comparable properties to the property you are trying to price (i.e., the subject property). "Comps" should have similar features - style, square footage, # of bedrooms, # of baths, location, etc. as the subject property. "Comps" should have sold within the last 6 months. A good CMA should have at least 3 "comps" to compare against the subject property. The analysis part of the CMA is adjusting each "comp" with a plus/minus value against the subject to arrive at a value for the subject property. Needless to say, this is a subjective process, since how do you give an absolute value for a difference such as a fireplace that the subject has and the "comp" doesn’t?  

    Anyway, the first property I was pricing was in an upscale western Chesterfield neighborhood. I had numerous "comps". All built within a few years of each other, all having the same number of bedrooms, baths, and approximate square footage.  This was going to be a breeze. The owner had already indicated to me what he thought the property was worth and my "comps" suggested the owner was dead on. Now, I started my analysis. As I went through my 5 comps, I noticed the first 2 "comps" had 9′ ceilings. Uh oh, so did 3, 4 and 5. My subject property was built with 8′ ceilings. So I looked at the competing market (i.e., what is/was for sale) and found numerous "comparable" competing 8′ ceiling properties had been on the market when these 9′ ceiling properties sold. 

     Next up in my analysis was a townhouse in western Henrico. Again, I had numerous "comps"; and again I knew what the seller was hoping for as a sale price. Another breeze. Not so fast, Brick. All my "comps" were for end units. The subject property was an interior unit. I am sure you can guess the rest.  

     The fact is all buyers in the current market are making sure they are getting their maximum deal. These buyers are making their choices based on the little differences. With inventory levels where they are, buyers have that option. While "price" overcomes all, buyers are willingly to "pay the freight" if they perceive they are getting their maximum bang for their buck,

     Currently, I serve on the Education Committee with the Richmond Association of Realtors (i.e. RAR). I am sure many of the younger members of that committee roll their eyes whenever I begin to wax and wane on the "good old days" of real estate. While I am the first to appreciate and praise all our modern conveniences (ask me about pre cell phone days some time), I do miss how impersonal real estate has become.

     In the good old days, whenever we had an offer for a listing agent, it was necessary to coordinate the delivery of the offer. Most times this meant physically placing the offer in the listing agent’s hands. The same applied to counters; and due to the nature of real estate, many of these exchanges were nocturnal. For some of the oldtimers in the Richmond real estate game, I can remember the exact place I met many of these people for the first time. I might not remember exactly when or who the parties to the contract were, but usually I can remember where the property was located that we were negotiating. 

     Nowadays, an offer can be transmitted via facsimile or e-mailed as a .pdf. With current gas prices, this is not all bad, but it does take away some of the personal nature of the business. These days it is not uncommon for me to be in a committee meeting at the RAR and be seated next to someone I don’t recognize. After we introduce ourselves, I often find it is someone with whom I have done a prior transaction, but just had never met. 

     Real Estate Youngsters, think about occasionally delivering a contract and meeting the other agent. If you insist on conducting business electronically, how about doing so with .pdfs? Your facsimiles are just too blurred for my tired old eyes.